Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 17.320597 19.907174 22.945280 26.830299 31.746047 37.873061 46.278670
2025-02-16 14.435902 17.646879 21.793305 27.719397 36.299654 48.867978 70.008443
2025-02-23 12.510182 15.879317 20.496253 27.599050 38.910821 57.662688 95.208273
2025-03-02 11.164291 14.573182 19.459625 27.425724 41.151680 66.530085 126.730015
2025-03-09 10.269671 13.731923 18.893718 27.760117 44.211578 78.134374 175.172043
2025-03-16 9.276420 12.604208 17.698672 26.771357 44.522506 84.267055 217.106162
2025-03-23 8.642354 11.937213 17.121492 26.713803 46.599253 95.524312 294.571977
2025-03-30 7.890584 11.008713 15.998436 25.454538 45.800789 99.132399 350.038707
2025-04-06 7.204821 10.125263 14.856457 23.982289 44.173916 99.758778 394.933526
2025-04-13 6.662321 9.429472 13.966676 22.872598 43.138613 101.825756 458.274991
2025-04-20 6.793561 9.833285 15.012986 25.776451 52.702284 146.238055 1167.985041
2025-04-27 6.643678 9.752873 15.182311 26.893014 58.145386 182.473927 2671.896671
2025-05-04 6.178753 9.119660 14.304129 25.651274 56.732125 187.704022 3843.026721
2025-05-11 6.003164 8.974241 14.330781 26.473821 61.936000 235.543108 18023.769772
2025-05-18 5.739620 8.652911 13.984350 26.361456 64.159520 271.212147 211731.069499
2025-05-25 5.495679 8.348552 13.640847 26.199256 66.202523 311.488765 NaN
2025-06-01 5.320115 8.154428 13.497255 26.512146 70.170430 380.747937 NaN
2025-06-08 5.042630 7.756955 12.906843 25.586641 69.047247 399.191232 NaN
2025-06-15 4.866416 7.535537 12.660534 25.532740 71.489562 469.492439 NaN
2025-06-22 4.604398 7.141027 12.025532 24.352514 68.802233 466.829786 NaN
2025-06-29 4.341207 6.733418 11.340548 22.970558 64.929902 441.351889 NaN
2025-07-06 4.122738 6.401015 10.796761 21.927370 62.343824 432.972560 NaN
2025-07-13 4.229235 6.683133 11.572706 24.654378 78.153525 856.955835 NaN